Italy have not scored more than one goal in in five of their last six internationals, but they will fancy their chances of success in the final third against a Bosnia outfit who have conceded 16 goals in their last five matches, shipping at least two goals on each occasion. Seeking to enter Euro 2024 on a positive note, the Azzurri should have few problems securing a routine victory in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 78.48%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 7.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.39%) and 1-0 (10.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.79%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Italy	Draw	Bosnia-Herzegovina
78.48% ( -0.03)	14.29% ( 0)	7.22% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 43.2% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.17% (

0.06)

38.82% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.86% (

0.07)

61.13% (

-0.07)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92% (

0.01)

8% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.8% (

0.02)

28.19% (

-0.02)

Bosnia-Herzegovina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.96% (

0.1)

53.04% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.32% (

0.06)

86.67% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Italy 78.47%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 7.22%

Draw 14.29%

Italy	Draw	Bosnia-Herzegovina
2-0 @ 13.53% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 11.39% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.56% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 3.64% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.31% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.53% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 3.09% Total : 78.47%	1-1 @ 6.79% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.54% Total : 14.29%	0-1 @ 2.69% 1-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.38% Total : 7.22%