SM
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| Current League B Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Saint Lucia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Guadeloupe | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sint Maarten | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curacao win with a probability of 56.28%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Saint Lucia had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curacao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Saint Lucia win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curacao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Curacao | Draw | Saint Lucia |
56.28% ( -0.21) | 22.72% ( 0.23) | 21% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.16% ( -0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.76% ( -1.04) | 45.24% ( 1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.42% ( -1) | 67.58% ( 1) |
| Curacao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.12% ( -0.43) | 15.88% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.89% ( -0.8) | 45.11% ( 0.8) |
| Saint Lucia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.38% ( -0.61) | 35.62% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.61% ( -0.64) | 72.39% ( 0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Curacao | Draw | Saint Lucia |
| 1-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 5.87% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 2.79% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.4% Total : 56.27% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.72% | 0-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 21% |
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