Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Dordrecht had a probability of 36% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.28%) and 0-2 (5.38%). The likeliest Dordrecht win was 2-1 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.