SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 47.1%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
47.1% ( -1.33) | 23.42% ( 0.15) | 29.48% ( 1.18) |
| Both teams to score 60.79% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.41% ( 0.08) | 40.59% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.02% ( 0.08) | 62.98% ( -0.07) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.5% ( -0.47) | 17.5% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.99% ( -0.84) | 48.01% ( 0.84) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.69% ( 0.83) | 26.31% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.56% ( 1.1) | 61.44% ( -1.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 8.03% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 5.43% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.92% Total : 47.1% | 1-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 4.61% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.42% | 1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 4.11% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.3% Total : 29.48% |
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