SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Jamaica |
41.34% ( 0.02) | 28.73% ( 0.06) | 29.92% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 44.5% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.24% ( -0.23) | 61.75% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.44% ( -0.18) | 81.55% ( 0.17) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.58% ( -0.1) | 29.41% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.59% ( -0.13) | 65.4% ( 0.13) |
| Jamaica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.04% ( -0.2) | 36.95% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.26% ( -0.2) | 73.74% ( 0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Jamaica |
| 1-0 @ 13.3% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.32% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.31% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.5% Total : 41.34% | 1-1 @ 13.24% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.59% Total : 28.72% | 0-1 @ 10.81% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.81% Total : 29.91% |
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