SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Denmark | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Serbia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 69.78%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 12.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.55%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| England | Draw | Iceland |
69.78% ( -0.02) | 18.04% ( 0.01) | 12.18% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.23% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.42% ( -0.03) | 40.58% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.04% ( -0.03) | 62.96% ( 0.03) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.52% ( -0.02) | 10.48% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.87% ( -0.03) | 34.13% ( 0.03) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.11% ( -0) | 43.89% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.96% ( -0) | 80.03% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| England | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-0 @ 11.7% 1-0 @ 10.37% 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0)3-0 @ 8.8% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.25% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.96% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.09% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.98% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.24% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.84% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0)Other @ 4.23% Total : 69.77% | 1-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.6% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.97% Other @ 0.92% Total : 18.04% | 0-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.52% ( 0)0-2 @ 1.56% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.09% 1-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 1.26% Total : 12.18% |
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