SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Italy had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.
| Result | ||
| England | Draw | Italy |
55.66% ( 2.94) | 23.66% ( -0.56) | 20.68% ( -2.39) |
| Both teams to score 50.72% ( -1.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.42% ( -0.36) | 49.57% ( 0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.39% ( -0.32) | 71.6% ( 0.31) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.34% ( 0.97) | 17.65% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.72% ( 1.66) | 48.27% ( -1.67) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.59% ( -2.53) | 38.4% ( 2.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.84% ( -2.51) | 75.15% ( 2.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| England | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.75)2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.61)3-1 @ 5.64% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.56% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 3.55% Total : 55.65% | 1-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.29)Other @ 0.96% Total : 23.65% | 0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.36) 1-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.52)0-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.41)1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.3)2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.21)Other @ 1.5% Total : 20.68% |
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