Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Slovakia would win this match.

Result
Slovakia	Draw	Iceland
43.89% ( -0.84)	27.42% ( 0.09)	28.68% ( 0.75)

Both teams to score 47.49% (

0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.29% (

0.02)

57.7% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.54% (

0.01)

78.46% (

-0.02)

Slovakia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.88% (

-0.42)

26.11% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.82% (

-0.57)

61.18% (

0.56)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.27% (

0.61)

35.72% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.5% (

0.62)

72.5% (

-0.63)

Score Analysis

Slovakia 43.89%

Iceland 28.68%

Draw 27.42%

Slovakia	Draw	Iceland
1-0 @ 12.52% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.21) 3-1 @ 3.87% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.11% Total : 43.89%	1-1 @ 12.89% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.75% Total : 27.42%	0-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.04) Other @ 2% Total : 28.68%