Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.24%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.54%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (11.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.01) 
