SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Fakel win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fakel | Draw | Akhmat Grozny |
34.59% ( 0.25) | 26.44% ( 0) | 38.97% ( -0.26) |
| Both teams to score 52.59% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.81% ( 0.02) | 52.19% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.1% ( 0.01) | 73.9% ( -0.02) |
| Fakel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.25% ( 0.16) | 28.75% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.41% ( 0.21) | 64.59% ( -0.21) |
| Akhmat Grozny Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.8% ( -0.13) | 26.19% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.72% ( -0.18) | 61.28% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fakel | Draw | Akhmat Grozny |
| 1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 34.59% | 1-1 @ 12.57% 0-0 @ 7.53% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.25% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.43% | 0-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 6.76% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.76% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.3% Total : 38.96% |
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