Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for Fakel had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Fakel win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.07) 
