Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 79.75%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for FC Serpa had a probability of 7.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.22%) and 1-2 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.92%), while for a FC Serpa win it was 2-1 (2.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
0.25) 
-0.52) 
