After a solid start to the season, Famalicao appear to have run out of steam in recent weeks and will head into the weekend in search of a pick-me-up. However, we predict that Gil Vicente will take the positives from their draw against Braga and end their losing streak away from home in the league.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
0.01) 
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