SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
33.77% ( -0.26) | 24.66% ( 0.06) | 41.56% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 58.44% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.45% ( -0.33) | 44.55% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.08% ( -0.31) | 66.91% ( 0.32) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.43% ( -0.31) | 25.57% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.56% ( -0.42) | 60.44% ( 0.43) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.52% ( -0.04) | 21.47% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.49% ( -0.06) | 54.51% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-1 @ 7.85% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.54% Total : 33.77% | 1-1 @ 11.51% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.65% | 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.45% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 4.54% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.75% 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 41.56% |
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