Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for FeralpiSalo had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.15%). The likeliest FeralpiSalo win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
1.52) 
-2.42) 
