Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reggiana win with a probability of 40.99%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reggiana win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Reggiana would win this match.
0.51) 
-0.77) 
