Four of Genoa's last six Serie A strikes have come courtesy of dead-ball situations, while Lecce conceded their eighth headed goal last weekend - a league high in that category. Even if the home side cannot break through in general play, they could therefore make the most of their set-pieces.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 52.61%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.87%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Genoa in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Genoa.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
