Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 59.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 19.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.46%) and 0-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Grimsby Town win it was 2-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.