SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 42.49%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 28.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.58%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.23%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
42.49% ( -0.03) | 29.1% ( 0.15) | 28.41% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 42.87% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.55% ( -0.51) | 63.45% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.21% ( -0.37) | 82.79% ( 0.37) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.39% ( -0.27) | 29.6% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.36% ( -0.33) | 65.64% ( 0.32) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.89% ( -0.38) | 39.1% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.18% ( -0.36) | 75.82% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 14.09% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.48% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.43% Total : 42.48% | 1-1 @ 13.23% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.57% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.52% Total : 29.1% | 0-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.5% Total : 28.41% |
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