The Brazilians should feel comfortable knowing that this match is on their home field, where they seem to show much more poise and precision.
As for Independiente Medellin, they have been too unpredictable lately, and the fact that their opponents have been in this position a couple of times recently and got the job done has us leaning towards the home team to claim all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 67.41%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 13.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.29%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Internacional would win this match.
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