SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 49.17%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Instituto | Draw | Gimnasia |
49.17% ( 0.29) | 27.55% ( 0.35) | 23.28% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 43.09% ( -1.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.75% ( -1.62) | 61.24% ( 1.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.82% ( -1.23) | 81.17% ( 1.22) |
| Instituto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.88% ( -0.59) | 25.12% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.18% ( -0.82) | 59.82% ( 0.81) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.54% ( -1.56) | 42.45% ( 1.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.17% ( -1.36) | 78.82% ( 1.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Instituto | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 14.73% ( 0.64) 2-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.27)2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.02% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.11% Total : 49.16% | 1-1 @ 12.62% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.66% ( 0.63)2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.53% Total : 27.55% | 0-1 @ 9.14% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.09% Total : 23.28% |
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