Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 34.92%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (6.85%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (13.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.