SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Albania had a probability of 21.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for an Albania win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Albania |
54.77% ( -0.02) | 23.83% | 21.39% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.2% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.55% ( 0.02) | 49.44% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.51% ( 0.02) | 71.48% ( -0.02) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.06% ( -0) | 17.93% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.25% ( -0) | 48.75% ( 0) |
| Albania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.39% ( 0.03) | 37.6% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.61% ( 0.03) | 74.38% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | Albania |
| 1-0 @ 11.58% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.96% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.74% 3-0 @ 5.71% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.58% 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.45% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 3.45% Total : 54.76% | 1-1 @ 11.33% 0-0 @ 6.74% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0)Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.83% | 0-1 @ 6.6% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.54% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.23% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.55% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0)Other @ 1.62% Total : 21.39% |
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