SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 6 | 16 | 16 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Italy | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 7 | -16 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 6 | 16 | 16 |
| 2 | Ukraine | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Italy | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 7 | -16 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 70.63%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 10.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.43%) and 3-0 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.75%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | North Macedonia |
70.63% ( 0.36) | 18.45% ( -0.42) | 10.91% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 44.58% ( 1.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.17% ( 1.92) | 45.83% ( -1.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.85% ( 1.79) | 68.15% ( -1.79) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.28% ( 0.65) | 11.72% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.15% ( 1.38) | 36.85% ( -1.38) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.5% ( 1.32) | 49.5% ( -1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.69% ( 0.91) | 84.31% ( -0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | North Macedonia |
| 2-0 @ 13.33% ( -0.39) 1-0 @ 12.43% ( -0.7)3-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.23)4-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.17)5-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.1)5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.22% Total : 70.62% | 1-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.49)2-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.61% Total : 18.45% | 0-1 @ 4.08% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 10.91% |
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