Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Karlsruher SC had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.75%) and 0-2 (5.63%). The likeliest Karlsruher SC win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
-0.23) 
0.16) 
