SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Kitchee had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.3%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Kitchee win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kitchee | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
29.56% ( 0.08) | 22.82% ( 0.04) | 47.62% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 63.06% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.37% ( -0.12) | 37.63% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.13% ( -0.13) | 59.86% ( 0.13) |
| Kitchee Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.23% ( -0.01) | 24.77% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.66% ( -0.01) | 59.34% ( 0.01) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.83% ( -0.09) | 16.17% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.37% ( -0.16) | 45.63% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kitchee | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.63% Total : 29.56% | 1-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.01% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.32% Total : 22.81% | 1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.3% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.65% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.64% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.66% Total : 47.62% |
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