Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 51.61%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Getafe had a probability of 22.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.41%) and 1-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Getafe win it was 1-0 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
0.37) 
-0.47) 
