SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 53.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 20.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lanus | Draw | Tigre |
53.21% ( -1.57) | 25.83% ( 0.32) | 20.96% ( 1.25) |
| Both teams to score 44.93% ( 0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.55% ( 0.16) | 57.45% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.75% ( 0.13) | 78.25% ( -0.13) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.33% ( -0.59) | 21.67% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.19% ( -0.9) | 54.81% ( 0.9) |
| Tigre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.37% ( 1.46) | 42.63% ( -1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.02% ( 1.22) | 78.98% ( -1.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lanus | Draw | Tigre |
| 1-0 @ 14.12% ( -0.35) 2-0 @ 10.8% ( -0.46)2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.34)3-1 @ 4.69% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 2% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.98% Total : 53.21% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 9.24% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.93% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.62% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.1)Other @ 1.06% Total : 20.96% |
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