SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 66.46%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 14.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 1-2 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Birmingham City |
66.46% ( 0.03) | 18.82% ( -0.02) | 14.71% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.88% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.83% ( 0.04) | 38.17% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.56% ( 0.04) | 60.44% ( -0.04) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.34% ( 0.02) | 10.66% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.48% ( 0.04) | 34.52% ( -0.04) |
| Birmingham City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.42% ( 0) | 38.57% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.68% ( 0) | 75.32% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Birmingham City |
| 2-0 @ 10.3% 2-1 @ 9.82% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.69% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.33% ( 0)4-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.1% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.49% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.95% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.93% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.84% ( 0)Other @ 4.52% Total : 66.46% | 1-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.82% | 1-2 @ 4.18% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.87% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.49% 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 1.94% Total : 14.71% |
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