SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leicester City win with a probability of 71%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 11.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leicester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (3.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leicester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leicester City | Draw | Birmingham City |
71% ( 0.58) | 17.28% ( -0.23) | 11.72% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 51.42% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.75% ( 0.17) | 38.25% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.47% ( 0.18) | 60.53% ( -0.18) |
| Leicester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.43% ( 0.18) | 9.57% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.98% ( 0.42) | 32.02% ( -0.42) |
| Birmingham City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.86% ( -0.47) | 43.14% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.59% ( -0.4) | 79.41% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leicester City | Draw | Birmingham City |
| 2-0 @ 11.36% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 9.69% ( 0)2-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 8.89% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 4.39% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.08)5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0)6-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.97% Total : 70.99% | 1-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.02% ( -0.07)Other @ 1% Total : 17.28% | 0-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.28% Total : 11.72% |
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