J1 League | Gameweek 22
Jul 6, 2024 at 10am UK
Machida Gion Stadium (Tokyo)
We said: Machida Zelvia 1-0 Nagoya Grampus
After extending their lead in the J1 League title race by three points last weekend, Machida will be brimming with confidence and should have enough quality to beat an out-of-form Nagoya side.
The Grampus Eight have got into the unwanted habit of finding a way to lose in recent weeks, a trait that will serve them poorly at the home of the league leaders.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Machida Zelvia had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Machida Zelvia win was 1-0 (11.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Machida Zelvia in this match.
| Result |
| Machida Zelvia | Draw | Nagoya Grampus |
34.25% ( 0.33) | 28.37% ( 0.05) | 37.38% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 46.62% ( -0.09) |
| 40.34% ( -0.13) | 59.66% ( 0.13) |
| 20.02% ( -0.1) | 79.97% ( 0.1) |
| 67.29% ( 0.16) | 32.71% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.73% ( 0.17) | 69.27% ( -0.17) |
| 69.29% ( -0.29) | 30.71% ( 0.29) |
