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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 25
Mar 10, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
N

Marseille
2 - 0
Nantes

Aubameyang (17', 79')
Aubameyang (74'), Mbemba (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Douglas (27'), Amian (45+1'), Gourvennec (80'), Sissoko (90+6')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Villarreal
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Nantes 0-2 Metz
Sunday, March 3 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 3-1 Nantes

Enjoying a new lease of life under the expert tutelage of Gasset, Marseille will be confident of securing a third-straight Ligue 1 win on Sunday night. Nantes' survival aims took a hit against Metz last time out, and the Orange Velodrome is not an ideal location to bounce back with a result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 67.47%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 13.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Nantes win it was 0-1 (4.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Marseille in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Marseille.

Result
MarseilleDrawNantes
67.47% (0.43599999999999 0.44) 19.1% (-0.149 -0.15) 13.43% (-0.289 -0.29)
Both teams to score 50.3% (-0.303 -0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.59% (0.015999999999998 0.02)42.41% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18% (0.015000000000001 0.02)64.82% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.4% (0.122 0.12)11.6% (-0.125 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.41% (0.264 0.26)36.59% (-0.267 -0.27)
Nantes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.9% (-0.423 -0.42)43.09% (0.42100000000001 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.63% (-0.357 -0.36)79.37% (0.35300000000001 0.35)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 67.45%
    Nantes 13.43%
    Draw 19.1%
MarseilleDrawNantes
2-0 @ 11.59% (0.1 0.1)
1-0 @ 10.76% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.76% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.33% (0.116 0.12)
3-1 @ 7.01% (0.016 0.02)
4-0 @ 4.49% (0.084000000000001 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.78% (0.027 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.95% (-0.027 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.93% (0.045 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.63% (0.019 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.59% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.64%
Total : 67.45%
1-1 @ 9.07% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-0 @ 5% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-2 @ 4.11% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 19.1%
0-1 @ 4.21% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-2 @ 3.82% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-2 @ 1.77% (-0.043 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.15% (-0.03 -0.03)
1-3 @ 1.07% (-0.033 -0.03)
Other @ 1.41%
Total : 13.43%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Marseille 4-0 Villarreal
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Clermont 1-5 Marseille
Saturday, March 2 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 4-1 Montpellier
Sunday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Shakhtar
Thursday, February 22 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Brest 1-0 Marseille
Sunday, February 18 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Shakhtar 2-2 Marseille
Thursday, February 15 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: Nantes 0-2 Metz
Sunday, March 3 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 0-1 Nantes
Saturday, February 24 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nantes 0-2 PSG
Saturday, February 17 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 1-2 Nantes
Sunday, February 11 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nantes 0-1 Lens
Saturday, February 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Reims 0-0 Nantes
Sunday, January 28 at 2pm in Ligue 1


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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