SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
47.26% ( -0.07) | 24.12% ( 0.02) | 28.62% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 57.76% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.67% ( -0.05) | 44.33% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.3% ( -0.05) | 66.71% ( 0.05) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.11% ( -0.05) | 18.89% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.63% ( -0.08) | 50.37% ( 0.08) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.21% ( 0.02) | 28.79% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.36% ( 0.02) | 64.64% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Marseille | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0)Other @ 3.29% Total : 47.26% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.11% | 1-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.62% |
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