SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 57.36%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 21.57% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 1-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
57.36% ( 0.15) | 21.08% ( -0.07) | 21.57% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 60.73% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.04% ( 0.22) | 36.96% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.85% ( 0.23) | 59.15% ( -0.23) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.23% ( 0.11) | 12.77% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.96% ( 0.23) | 39.04% ( -0.23) |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.61% ( 0.05) | 30.39% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.42% ( 0.06) | 66.58% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.97% Total : 57.36% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.88% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.08% | 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.87% Total : 21.57% |
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