Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 49.36%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 25.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.