Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 43.16%. A win for Modena had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Modena win was 1-0 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
-0.22) 
0.01) 
