SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Albania | 8 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Czech Republic | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Poland | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Moldova | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Faroe Islands | 8 | -11 | 2 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moldova win with a probability of 65.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Malta had a probability of 14.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moldova win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for a Malta win it was 1-2 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Moldova in this match.
| Result | ||
| Moldova | Draw | Malta |
65.78% ( -0.49) | 19.35% ( 0.24) | 14.87% ( 0.26) |
| Both teams to score 53.38% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.68% ( -0.55) | 40.32% ( 0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.31% ( -0.57) | 62.7% ( 0.57) |
| Moldova Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.55% ( -0.28) | 11.45% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.73% ( -0.63) | 36.27% ( 0.63) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.29% ( 0) | 39.71% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.61% ( 0) | 76.39% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moldova | Draw | Malta |
| 2-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 9.86% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.95% Total : 65.77% | 1-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 19.35% | 1-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.84% Total : 14.87% |
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