SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 68.03%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 12.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.21%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (4.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montenegro | Draw | North Macedonia |
68.03% ( 1.81) | 19.86% ( -0.83) | 12.11% ( -0.99) |
| Both teams to score 44.03% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.25% ( 1.16) | 48.75% ( -1.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.14% ( 1.04) | 70.85% ( -1.04) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.67% ( 0.91) | 13.32% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.82% ( 1.8) | 40.17% ( -1.81) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.8% ( -0.92) | 49.2% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.9% ( -0.66) | 84.09% ( 0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montenegro | Draw | North Macedonia |
| 2-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.26) 1-0 @ 13.21% ( -0.18)2-1 @ 9.45% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.46)3-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.37)4-1 @ 3.2% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.25% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.21)5-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.56% Total : 68.02% | 1-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.38) 0-0 @ 6.55% ( -0.32)2-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.58% Total : 19.86% | 0-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.35) 1-2 @ 3.32% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.49% Total : 12.11% |
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