While there is nothing but pride riding on this fixture for Lithuania, Montenegro can keep their slim hopes of securing a top-two finish in Group G alive with a win on Thursday, but they must hope that Serbia fail to beat Bulgaria on Sunday.
Lithuania managed to frustrate Montenegro in the reverse fixture, but we believe that the hosts will do enough to claim a slender victory this time around.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 62.61%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.73%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (6.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.
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