SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 40.47%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 30.77% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.03%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Belarus win was 1-0 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belarus | Draw | Montenegro |
30.77% ( -0) | 28.75% ( 0.01) | 40.47% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.76% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.41% ( -0.03) | 61.58% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.56% ( -0.02) | 81.43% ( 0.02) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.78% ( -0.02) | 36.21% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27% ( -0.02) | 72.99% ( 0.02) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.17% ( -0.02) | 29.82% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.09% ( -0.02) | 65.9% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belarus | Draw | Montenegro |
| 1-0 @ 10.96% 2-1 @ 6.74% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.57% 3-1 @ 2.28% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0)Other @ 1.94% Total : 30.76% | 1-1 @ 13.27% 0-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0)Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.75% | 0-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.03% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.91% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.19% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.46% Total : 40.47% |
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