SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 62.69%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 15.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.75%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for an Armenia win it was 0-1 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| North Macedonia | Draw | Armenia |
62.69% ( -0.68) | 21.58% ( 0.22) | 15.73% ( 0.46) |
| Both teams to score 48.09% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.59% ( -0.07) | 48.41% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.45% ( -0.06) | 70.54% ( 0.06) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.15% ( -0.24) | 14.85% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.82% ( -0.46) | 43.17% ( 0.45) |
| Armenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.48% ( 0.58) | 43.51% ( -0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.27% ( 0.48) | 79.72% ( -0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| North Macedonia | Draw | Armenia |
| 1-0 @ 12.32% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 11.75% ( -0.16)2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 7.47% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.31% Total : 62.68% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.07% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.79% Total : 21.57% | 0-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.54% Total : 15.73% |
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