SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 5 | -10 | 0 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 61.17%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 15.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.15%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.84%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ukraine | Draw | North Macedonia |
61.17% ( 2.32) | 23.76% ( -0.85) | 15.08% ( -1.47) |
| Both teams to score 40.69% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.35% ( 0.76) | 57.65% ( -0.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.59% ( 0.6) | 78.41% ( -0.6) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.38% ( 1.17) | 18.62% ( -1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.08% ( 1.93) | 49.92% ( -1.92) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50% ( -1.56) | 50% ( 1.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.34% ( -1.11) | 84.66% ( 1.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ukraine | Draw | North Macedonia |
| 1-0 @ 15.64% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 13.15% ( 0.58)2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.58)3-1 @ 5.11% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.35)4-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.72% Total : 61.16% | 1-1 @ 10.84% ( -0.41) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( -0.27)2-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.44% Total : 23.75% | 0-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.49) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.28)Other @ 2.63% Total : 15.08% |
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