SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Metz had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Metz |
45.3% ( 0.7) | 25.37% ( -0.05) | 29.33% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 54.07% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.62% ( -0.09) | 49.38% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.58% ( -0.08) | 71.42% ( 0.08) |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.21% ( 0.28) | 21.79% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.01% ( 0.43) | 54.99% ( -0.43) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.14% ( -0.51) | 30.86% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.86% ( -0.6) | 67.14% ( 0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Metz |
| 1-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 7.81% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 45.29% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.08% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.99% Total : 29.33% |
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