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M
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 at 4.05pm UK
Stade de la Mosson
L

Montpellier
1 - 2
Lyon

Nordin (23')
Ferri (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Lacazette (74'), Caqueret (82')
Tagliafico (28'), Orban (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Montpellier 1-4 Nice
Wednesday, February 7 at 7.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lyon 2-1 Lille
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France

We said: Montpellier HSC 0-1 Lyon

Assuming the role of stalemate specialists at home, Montpellier are seldom outfought on their own patch - barring their midweek cup humiliation - and a Lyon side also nursing jellied legs will not have it all their own way at the Stade de la Mosson. Making the net ripple on the road has been an issue for Les Gones all season long, but with Sage instilling a newfound sense of defensive discipline into his crop, a solitary strike may be enough for the visitors to continue their climb away from the drop zone, leapfrogging their out-of-sorts hosts in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 25.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
25.5% (0.091999999999999 0.09) 25.07%49.42% (-0.092000000000006 -0.09)
Both teams to score 52.09% (0.080000000000005 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.4% (0.061999999999998 0.06)50.6% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.48% (0.054000000000002 0.05)72.51% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.51% (0.11 0.11)34.49% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.8% (0.117 0.12)71.2% (-0.119 -0.12)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.51% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)20.49% (0.013000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.02% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)52.97% (0.023999999999994 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Montpellier HSC 25.5%
    Lyon 49.42%
    Draw 25.07%
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
1-0 @ 7.52% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-1 @ 6.35% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 4% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.25% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.79% (0.011 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.42% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 25.5%
1-1 @ 11.92%
0-0 @ 7.07% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.013 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.07%
0-1 @ 11.2% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 9.45% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 8.88% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-3 @ 5% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-3 @ 4.69% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.98% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.86% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.05% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 49.42%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Montpellier 1-4 Nice
Wednesday, February 7 at 7.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Rennes 2-1 Montpellier
Saturday, February 3 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Montpellier 0-0 Lille
Sunday, January 28 at 12pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Feignies-Aulnoye 0-4 Montpellier
Wednesday, January 24 at 5pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Brest 2-0 Montpellier
Sunday, January 14 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Amiens 1-2 Montpellier
Saturday, January 6 at 5pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lyon 2-1 Lille
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lyon 1-0 Marseille
Sunday, February 4 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lyon 2-3 Rennes
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Bergerac Perigord 1-2 Lyon
Friday, January 19 at 7.45pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Le Havre 3-1 Lyon
Sunday, January 14 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Pontarlier 0-3 Lyon
Sunday, January 7 at 1.30pm in Coupe de France


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