Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 25.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Result | ||
Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lyon |
25.5% ( 0.09) | 25.07% | 49.42% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 52.09% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.4% ( 0.06) | 50.6% ( -0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.48% ( 0.05) | 72.51% ( -0.06) |
Montpellier HSC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.51% ( 0.11) | 34.49% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.8% ( 0.12) | 71.2% ( -0.12) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.51% ( -0.01) | 20.49% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.02% ( -0.02) | 52.97% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Montpellier HSC | Draw | Lyon |
1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 25.5% | 1-1 @ 11.92% 0-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.07% | 0-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.69% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.98% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.65% Total : 49.42% |
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