Excluding the hammering at the hands of Inter, Frosinone have typically been hard to beat since the March hiatus. However, wins have been hard to come by for Di Francesco's men, whose recent games against Monza across Serie A, Serie B and the Coppa Italia have resulted in one win in six, with four losses and a draw.
A draw could be on the cards given the Biancorossi's seemingly diminished motivation and Frosinone's historical struggles in this fixture.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Frosinone had a probability of 31.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Frosinone win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.
-1.44) 
0.15) 
