SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Nantong Zhiyun had a probability of 29.24% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest Nantong Zhiyun win was 2-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nantong Zhiyun | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
29.24% ( 0.03) | 23.97% ( 0) | 46.79% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 58.69% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.71% ( 0.01) | 43.29% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.31% ( 0.01) | 65.69% ( -0.01) |
| Nantong Zhiyun Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.16% ( 0.03) | 27.84% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.57% ( 0.04) | 63.43% ( -0.03) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.32% ( -0) | 18.68% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.99% ( -0.01) | 50.01% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nantong Zhiyun | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 7.13% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.65% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.25% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.04% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.55% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.81% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 29.24% | 1-1 @ 11.15% 2-2 @ 5.98% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.2% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.97% | 1-2 @ 9.36% ( -0) 0-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.32% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.24% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.09% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.35% 1-4 @ 2.2% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.72% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.4% Total : 46.79% |
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