SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantong Zhiyun win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantong Zhiyun win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Nantong Zhiyun |
35.67% ( 0.18) | 26.75% ( -0.17) | 37.58% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.71% ( 0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.64% ( 0.69) | 53.35% ( -0.69) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.1% ( 0.58) | 74.9% ( -0.58) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.35% ( 0.44) | 28.65% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.53% ( 0.55) | 64.47% ( -0.55) |
| Nantong Zhiyun Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.48% ( 0.32) | 27.52% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.97% ( 0.41) | 63.03% ( -0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Nantong Zhiyun |
| 1-0 @ 9.86% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 7.95% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.16% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.31% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.66% Total : 35.67% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.89% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.74% | 0-1 @ 10.17% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 8.2% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.82% 2-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 37.57% |
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