SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Luton Town |
52.91% ( -1.08) | 22.87% ( 0.44) | 24.21% ( 0.64) |
| Both teams to score 57.93% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.75% ( -1.35) | 42.25% ( 1.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.35% ( -1.37) | 64.65% ( 1.37) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.02% ( -0.84) | 15.98% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.71% ( -1.58) | 45.29% ( 1.58) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.94% ( -0.2) | 31.05% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.63% ( -0.23) | 67.37% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Luton Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.49% Total : 52.92% | 1-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.31)0-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.82% Total : 24.21% |
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