SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 51.5%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Newcastle United |
51.5% ( 0.03) | 22.73% ( 0.03) | 25.77% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 60.11% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.88% ( -0.19) | 40.12% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.51% ( -0.19) | 62.49% ( 0.2) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.29% ( -0.06) | 15.71% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.22% ( -0.11) | 44.78% ( 0.11) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.32% ( -0.14) | 28.68% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.5% ( -0.18) | 64.5% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.95% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.76% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.2% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.69% Total : 51.5% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.73% | 1-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.51% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0)Other @ 3.44% Total : 25.77% |
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