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Premier League | Gameweek 16
Dec 10, 2023 at 2pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
MC

Luton
1 - 2
Man City

Adebayo (45+2')
Nakamba (58'), Doughty (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Silva (62'), Grealish (65')
Rodri (73')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Luton 3-4 Arsenal
Tuesday, December 5 at 8.15pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-0 Man City
Wednesday, December 6 at 8.15pm in Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 68.71%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 13.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Luton Town win it was 2-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Luton TownDrawManchester City
13.34% (0.013 0.01) 17.95% (0.013000000000002 0.01) 68.71% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Both teams to score 54.23% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.83% (-0.026999999999994 -0.03)37.16% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.63% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)59.36% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.14% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)39.86% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.48% (0.0039999999999978 0)76.52% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.17% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)9.83% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.37% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)32.63% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 13.34%
    Manchester City 68.71%
    Draw 17.95%
Luton TownDrawManchester City
2-1 @ 3.84% (0.0029999999999997 0)
1-0 @ 3.6% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
2-0 @ 1.66% (0.002 0)
3-2 @ 1.37%
3-1 @ 1.18% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.69%
Total : 13.34%
1-1 @ 8.36% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.46% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 3.92% (0.004 0)
3-3 @ 1.06% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 17.95%
0-2 @ 10.54%
1-2 @ 9.7% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-1 @ 9.09% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-3 @ 8.15% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 7.5% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-4 @ 4.73% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-4 @ 4.35% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-3 @ 3.45%
0-5 @ 2.19% (-0.004 -0)
1-5 @ 2.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 2% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-5 @ 0.93% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 4.07%
Total : 68.71%

Read more!
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Form Guide
Last Game: Luton 3-4 Arsenal
Tuesday, December 5 at 8.15pm in Premier League
Last Game: Brentford 3-1 Luton
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 2-1 Crystal Palace
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man Utd 1-0 Luton
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Luton 1-1 Liverpool
Sunday, November 5 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-1 Luton
Sunday, October 29 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-0 Man City
Wednesday, December 6 at 8.15pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-3 Spurs
Sunday, December 3 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-2 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, November 28 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Man City 1-1 Liverpool
Saturday, November 25 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Chelsea 4-4 Man City
Sunday, November 12 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Man City 3-0 Young Boys
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League


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